U.S. allies have little doubt that the broad pattern reflects the Kremlin increasingly pushing the boundaries.
“With these incidents now so frequent and so brazen, it is increasingly difficult to distinguish them from actual acts of war,” said Katja Bego, a senior research fellow with the Europe program at London-based think tank Chatham House. “The Kremlin is playing with fire here: The risk of more serious escalation — even if unintended — is very real.”
Baltic states urge caution
There is a mounting sense that something must be done, but what?
Lithuania has made plans for the evacuation of older adults and is lifting its ban on hosting nuclear weapons. Finland has warned citizens to be “mentally prepared” for new sabotage attacks. France is putting a plan in place to protect the country’s critical infrastructure.
Hanging over all of this is Article 5, NATO’s collective defense clause.
For Moscow, escalating hybrid attacks could highlight Western divisions over how best to respond and undermine the alliance at a time when the U.S. commitment to this mutual defense has been in question.
“I think they are trying to show Europe they can act without consequences, and more recently, to show Europe that the U.S. will not come to their rescue. It’s worrisome,” said William Alberque, a former senior NATO official based in Berlin.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Wednesday and told a media briefing that the U.S. was concerned that the Ukraine war could “metastasize and spread into other places … be it through a hybrid attack, be it through a sabotage attack, be it through a misunderstanding.”
He added: “We watch reports carefully, and we raise them with the right people at the right levels.”
A State Department spokesperson told NBC News: “We continue to monitor Russia’s hybrid activities in Europe and are working closely with our allies and partners to strengthen resilience against the hybrid threat.”
Despite the spreading sense of alarm, some in Europe are urging against getting carried away.
NATO’s Baltic member states have not changed their security assessments, saying there is no imminent risk of a Russian invasion while much of Moscow’s military resources are tied up in Ukraine — and struggling to make progress there.
