Virginia voters on Tuesday will decide the fate of a constitutional amendment that would pave the way for a new congressional map designed to allow Democrats to pick up as many as four seats in this year’s midterm elections.
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The special election marks the latest fight in the mid-decade redistricting war that has unfolded across the country as both parties vie for control of the narrowly divided House. Under the proposed map in Virginia, Democrats would be in position to hold up to 10 of the state’s 11 districts, rather than the current six.
Virginia Democrats have framed their aggressive effort as a response to President Donald Trump pressuring GOP-led states to redraw their district lines last summer. Republicans have accused Democrats of a power grab after winning full control of Virginia’s government in last fall’s elections.
While Democrats have maintained a clear spending advantage, Tuesday’s contest is shaping up to be close. Virginia has leaned Democratic in recent elections, with Gov. Abigail Spanberger winning by 15 points in November and then-Vice President Kamala Harris carrying the state by 6 points in 2024.
But Democrats have acknowledged the messaging challenges they have faced as the party that had previously opposed such partisan gerrymandering moves. And a springtime special election where only the redistricting referendum is appearing on the ballot makes turnout unpredictable.
The constitutional amendment seeks to temporarily bypass the state’s bipartisan redistricting commission — which voters overwhelmingly approved a few years ago — to enact a new congressional map for the rest of the decade. It would also return mapmaking duties to the commission after the 2030 census.
A Washington Post/George Mason University poll released earlier this month showed that 52% of likely voters said they supported the referendum and 47% opposed it, an edge that was within the survey’s margin of error.
One month ago, the pro- referendum group, Virginians for Fair Elections, had spent 17 times as much on ads as the anti-referendum group, Virginians for Fair Maps, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. But the gap had closed to less than 3-to-1 by Monday.
State and national figures from both parties have hit the campaign trail in recent weeks, underscoring the stakes for the balance of power in Washington.
Trump was scheduled to participate in tele-rally on the eve of the election with House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., against the amendment, according to a person familiar with the matter. Trump also called into a conservative talk radio show in Virginia Monday night to urge voters to reject the “unfair” map, warning that Democrats winning control of the House would be a “disaster.”
Johnson has also appeared at other events in opposition to the redistricting referendum, as have former Gov. Glenn Youngkin, former state Attorney General Jason Miyares and other members of Congress.
On the Democratic side, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., former Attorney General Eric Holder, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and Sens. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine have appeared at rallies and canvassing events in favor of the referendum. A virtual rally last week featured California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who successfully launched the first Democratic counterattack to Trump’s redistricting push last year.
Former President Barack Obama has also been prominently featured in Virginians for Fair Elections ads, urging “yes” votes on the ballot measure. At the same time, Republicans have run TV ads that feature years-old footage of Obama criticizing “political gerrymandering” because it makes political parties move “further and further apart and harder and harder to find common ground.”
Democrats tried to make the case that their map proposal is a necessary counterweight to Trump.
“We’re giving Virginians a chance to vote — which Republican states have not done — about whether they want to have a congressional delegation that will stand up against Donald Trump’s tyranny if he tries to interfere with our elections,” Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., said on “Fox News Sunday” this past weekend.
They’ve also used that strategy in their advertising. In one spot, a narrator highlights that Trump “told Texas to rig their congressional maps” — and that “we can stop Trump by voting for fair elections.” Notably, the ad paints the Virginia measure as a “temporary fix to level the playing field.”
Another casts “MAGA Republicans redrawing congressional maps” as “one of the biggest threats to democracy ever.”
For their part Republicans have tried to tie the measure to Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger, who has seen her latest approval rating dip below 50% despite winning comfortably last year. Spanberger has also stumped in support of the new map.
Republicans have also used ads to highlight the fact that the measure seeks to suspend a bipartisan redistricting commission that voters passed in 2020 by nearly a 2-to-1 margin.
“No amount of money is going to let Virginians ignore what they saw when those maps were published,” said Mike Young, the Virginians for Fair Maps campaign manager. “And no amount of money is going to make them undo what was passed just five years ago, to take politics out of this process.”
Further complicating the outlook of the constitutional amendment is that Virginia voters may not even have the final say on the matter. While the Virginia Supreme Court allowed the special election to take place, it also reserved the right to rule on the legality of the measure after the race.
Heading into Tuesday, Democrats were signaling cautious optimism, while saying it was difficult to get a good read on Tuesday’s election.
Many Republicans watching the race closely acknowledge that the political winds in the state are likely still too much to overcome. But they warn that if the election comes down to the wire, Republicans are likely to second-guess why they didn’t bring in money and star power earlier.
“There has been a solid effort here in Virginia against serious headwinds,” said Zack Roday, a Virginia-based Republican strategist, referring to Democrats’ wins in the state five months ago and spending advantage. But, he added, “if the finish is really close there will be lots of Monday morning quarterbacks.”
