With his time in the governor’s office coming to an end, Brian Kemp has asked Georgia voters for “one last thing.”
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“Send Derek Dooley to the U.S. Senate,” the two-term Republican implored viewers in a new TV ad from his PAC that hit the airwaves this week, yet another sign that Kemp is putting all of his chips behind his preferred candidate ahead of Tuesday’s GOP Senate primary.
The question for Kemp is whether Dooley, a former college football coach and political novice, is a risky bet — or one that emphasizes his sway in one of the nation’s most tightly divided swing states, and perhaps beyond.
“If Dooley’s able to pull it off, it shows that Kemp is ready to put his own imprint on not just the Georgia Republican Party, but the national Republican Party,” said Jay Morgan, a former Georgia GOP executive director.
Morgan said he has “never seen a governor put so much of his personal capital on the line” in his 30 years of working in Georgia politics. But in doing so, Kemp is exposing himself to criticism and second-guessing as the GOP tries to break a Senate losing streak in a state it dominated for years.
“This one, the governor completely owns it,” Morgan said.
Dooley has been battling with GOP Reps. Mike Collins and Buddy Carter in the primary to take on Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, and none of the Republicans is expected to win a majority of the primary vote Tuesday. That would push the race to a June 16 runoff between the top two vote-getters.
Collins and Carter have been casting themselves as staunch allies of President Donald Trump. While Dooley has also stressed that he supports Trump, he’s pitched himself as a political outsider, arguing Carter and Collins have records that could be used against them in November. Collins is also facing an ongoing ethics investigation into whether he misused congressional funds, allegations that Collins has dismissed as “bogus.”
“I have a very strong belief it’s going to take a political outsider to beat Jon Ossoff in this race,” Kemp said at a recent campaign event with Dooley in Habersham.
Kemp has been behind Dooley since he decided not to run for Senate himself. The two-term governor is the biggest power broker to endorse in the primary, with Trump staying on the sidelines so far.
All in for Dooley
Kemp is close personally with the well-known Dooley family. Dooley’s father, Vince, was a legendary football coach at the University of Georgia, while Derek Dooley served as the head coach at the University of Tennessee.
Dooley’s performance in this primary — and potentially in November — could be an early stress test for Kemp’s political operation and influence over GOP voters as he weighs his next steps, with term limits barring Kemp from another run for governor.
Some Georgia Republicans expect Kemp to at least consider running for president in 2028, given his résumé as a conservative battleground-state governor. While several Georgia Republican strategists said Dooley’s performance would not affect Kemp’s reputation nationally, one suggested a flop could make it tough for Kemp to make his case to presidential primary voters.
“If he can’t get a candidate across the line in his own state, I think it’s going to be very difficult for him to go to Iowa and get people to fund that proof of concept,” said the strategist, who is not involved in the Senate race.
Kemp, for his part, said in a recent Politico interview that he is “focused on 2026,” and he refused to engage with questions about a potential presidential run. A Kemp adviser told NBC News that Kemp is “1,000%” focused on 2026 and is “not thinking about legacy at this point in time.”
Kemp and his wife, Marty, have been consistent companions on the campaign trail with Dooley, joining him for each leg of his statewide tour, including the final stretch that kicked off on Wednesday. Kemp has also helped Dooley behind the scenes, making calls to donors to build support for him, according to a Kemp adviser.
Dooley described the governor as a “great mentor.”
“When you’re a political outsider and you have no history in politics, the one thing that I’ve learned is either you gotta have somebody supporting you that has a little political history to help you get off the ground, or you gotta have a lot of money, right?” Dooley said in a phone interview. “It’s one or the other, and I don’t have a lot of money.”
Dooley said Kemp connected him with supporters, noting, “That was a big boost for me early, to get in front of people who have influence, allowed me to get a meeting and allowed me to go sell myself. And he has stuck with me ever since.”
Dooley noted that he still had to make his own case.
“I have to go sell myself and my vision and how I’m going to represent the state, because Gov. Kemp’s not on the ballot,” Dooley said.
Kemp’s PAC, Hardworking Americans Inc., has also pitched in, spending more than $3 million on pro-Dooley text messages and ads, according to campaign finance reports. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that Kemp’s decision to back Dooley also winnowed the primary field, prompting one candidate to end his campaign.
“People have asked us, why are you so engaged in this race? Why are you not only endorsing Derek Dooley, but why are you out there working hard for him?” Kemp told the crowd at the cafe in Habersham.
“It’s really one reason. That’s because I want to win our Senate seat back,” Kemp said.
Ossoff and Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock first won their races in 2021 runoffs, and Warnock won again in 2022, defeating Trump-backed Herschel Walker. Republicans view Ossoff as a top target as they defend their Senate majority this year, but Ossoff has stockpiled a whopping $32 million as he gears up for the race.
Several Georgia Republicans were concerned about their prospects in November, particularly as Trump’s approval rating has tanked and gas prices have surged amid the Iran war. One GOP strategist fatalistically likened the party’s eventual nominee to a “sacrificial lamb.” Others were more optimistic but acknowledged the race would be very tough for Republicans.
Making matters worse, the GOP primary is expected to drag on until the June runoff, further draining the party’s resources.
Trump looms
Trump could shake up the race if he decides to back a candidate in the runoff, and all three candidates have been jockeying for Trump’s endorsement.
Collins told NBC News at a recent event in Dahlonega that Trump has “this impeccable ability to just inject himself into the race and support people at the right time. At the end of the day. I look forward to having his support. I’d love to have his support.”
Carter said in a Thursday interview that he has sought Trump’s backing, noting, “If he does indeed decide to get involved, we feel very comfortable that he’s going to endorse us, and we hope he does.”
Dooley has said he wants to earn Trump’s support, and he met with the president in August. In his ads, Dooley says he will “work with President Trump but for you.”
But Kemp has clashed with Trump, most notably after Trump’s 2020 presidential election loss, when the president falsely claimed the election in Georgia was stolen. Kemp vehemently pushed back, and Trump responded by trying to oust the governor in 2022, endorsing former Sen. David Perdue in the primary. Kemp won the Republican nomination in a landslide, beating Perdue by 52 points.
Dooley has walked the line between Kemp’s and Trump’s opposing views of the 2020 election, twice declining to directly say if he agreed with Kemp that the election was not stolen.
“We all know there were a lot of issues in 2020,” Dooley said, noting he wanted to stay focused on winning in 2026.
Trump and Kemp have largely moved on since their clashes after 2020, and two Kemp advisers said the governor and president speak “often.”
The battle with Trump has also not hurt Kemp’s standing with Republicans in Georgia. A recent Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll found 85% of likely GOP primary voters approved of Kemp’s job as governor, with 55% strongly approving.
Debbie Dooley — a tea party activist who is not related to the Senate candidate but is backing him in Tuesday’s primary — said some Trump supporters in Georgia are “having second thoughts” about opposing Kemp in the past. Dooley herself organized censure resolutions against Kemp following the 2020 election and backed Perdue in 2022.
“They realize [Kemp] can help us take back that Senate seat from Ossoff and his record of success in passing conservative agenda — I mean, he stood strong when even Donald Trump was criticizing him. And I think he gained a lot of respect [for] that,” she said.
Derek Dooley has stayed close to Kemp, declining to name a Kemp policy he disagreed with, saying he is “not going to go bill by bill on everything.” He said broadly that he views Kemp’s leadership as a “real inspiration,” adding that Kemp “has an ability to respect all sides and work with all sides and delivers results.”
In a nod to Kemp’s enduring popularity among GOP voters, neither Collins nor Carter has tried to use Kemp’s clashes with the president to drive a wedge between Dooley and Trump, as they all seek votes from Trump’s loyal supporters.
Carter said he counts Kemp as a friend and respects Kemp’s decision to support “a childhood friend.”
“He’s a very popular governor. He’s done a great job. And once we’re in the runoff and Derek Dooley is not, I hope that he will consider endorsing us,” Carter said.
“Gov. Kemp’s done a good job,” Collins told NBC News at the recent campaign event. “And this is all I’ll say at the end of the day: I look forward to having Gov. Kemp’s support in this race too, when we get through the primary.”
Dooley, meanwhile, said Kemp’s endorsement will only get him so far.
“Gov. Kemp’s endorsement is not going to win me the election,” Dooley said. “I have to go earn it from every voter out there in Georgia, and that’s what I’ve been doing the past nine months.”
