From gas and groceries to housing and wage growth, midterm voters who are being squeezed by inflation tell NBC News the economy is their top issue this Election Day.
In 2024, President Donald Trump’s promise to bring down prices and make daily life more affordable helped him to win back the White House.
But nearly two years into his second term, Trump’s tariffs and his war with Iran are driving costs higher across the country and fueling deep discontent among voters.
These frustrations aren’t confined to voters who support Democrats. More than half of Republicans, 53%, are dissatisfied with the state of the economy, according to the latest NBC News poll.
This has created an opening for Democrats to win majorities in both the House and Senate. And while the House majority is widely expected to shift to Democrats after Tuesday night, the Senate is still very much a jump ball.
Veteran election data analysts are quick to remind the public that as Tuesday’s voting and later counting unfolds, any one of the competitive Senate races could tip either way.
Gas prices outpace the national average
In several of the states with close Senate races, voters face gas prices that have climbed higher, and more sharply, than the mean nationwide prices over the same period.
Across the country, the average cost of a gallon of gas has risen 40% since Feb. 28, the day before Trump launched attacks on Iran that sent crude oil prices through the roof.
Right before the war, the average price of unleaded was $2.98 per gallon, according to NBC News’ gas price tracker. On Monday, it was $4.16.
In Iowa, however, the average price has climbed by significantly more, nearly 55% since late February. The same figure applies in Nebraska. In Kansas, gas prices are up by 53%.
All three states broke for Trump in 2024. But two years later they are in play, and Democratic Senate candidates Josh Turek in Iowa and Adam Hamilton in Kansas, as well as Independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska, will be very closely watched tonight.
Drivers in Michigan are also experiencing an outsized jump, with gas up 51% from $2.99 in February to $4.52 on Monday. There, Democrat Abdul El Sayed is facing off against Republican Mike Rogers.
In Ohio, where Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown is challenging incumbent Republican Jon Husted, the price of a gallon of gas has climbed by 48%.
“We aren’t going very many places,” Kathy DiCristofaro, of Youngstown, Ohio, told NBC News. “We’re retired and have had to cancel trips,” she said.
In Maine, the price of a gallon of gas is 46% higher than it was before the war, creating a drag on Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins and an opportunity for Democrat Troy Jackson.
Even when national average gas prices pivot lower, as they did throughout October, that doesn’t always extend to parts of the country where refinery activity influences fuel costs, particularly in the Great Lakes region.
Far from the coasts, refineries that service Michigan, Ohio and Iowa cannot easily restore supply lost to weather events or refinery capacity.
“When you’re isolated in the interior of the country, these problems can linger as long as the refinery is experiencing issues,” said Patrick De Haan, chief petroleum analyst at GasBuddy.
Tariffs and higher grocery prices
Beyond the gas pump, voters are also feeling the sting of higher oil prices overseas in the form of increased transportation costs for groceries and retail goods.
In several of the states with tight Senate races, average households are spending a lot more of their monthly income on groceries than shoppers elsewhere in the country, according to a WalletHub study.
Among the 10 most cost-burdened cities for groceries in America, three of them are in Ohio: Cleveland, Toledo and Cincinnati.
Also making the list are Detroit, Michigan and Hialeah, Florida, the latter a red state with surprisingly competitive gubernatorial and Senate races this year.
