5 things to know before the stock market opens Monday

Happy Monday. While I was keeping busy as a groomsman in a wedding in Michigan, artificial intelligence executives were busy making big business and policy moves.

Stock futures are lower this morning. The three major averages are coming off a losing week.

Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:

• Amodei laid out a three-step plan that he said would pace development “without sacrificing commercial advantage or the United States’ lead in AI.” The AI leader told CBS News that the “toughest dilemma” would be if China didn’t also slow development of their AI models.
• As CNBC’s Ashley Capoot and Kate Rooney write, Amodei’s call for deceleration creates a tough balancing act for Anthropic as the company approaches a potentially historic IPO.
• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Elon Musk quickly voiced their support for Amodei’s proposal, a rare show of unity among the three rivals.
• Later on Saturday, Altman ruled out an IPO for the ChatGPT maker this year, saying that going public at the moment was “ill-advised.”
• Lawmakers in Washington, D.C., are racing to figure out whether and how the industry should be regulated. A group of Democrats called on House Speaker Mike Johnson to keep his chamber in session until it passes safeguards.
• Nasdaq 100 futures are more than 1% lower this morning as AI-linked stocks slide.
• Follow live market updates here.

Crude oil prices are higher this morning after Saudi Arabia closed a key pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, citing damage sustained by drones launched from Iraq. The Saudis have not said how bad the damage was or for how long the closure would last.

The East-West pipeline can carry 7 million barrels of oil per day and has helped alleviate some of the supply crunch brought about by the Iran war. A diplomatic meeting on Hormuz between Iran and the Gulf Arab states scheduled for Monday was postponed following the attack on the pipeline.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures and Brent crude futures both rose by more than 3% this morning. Last week, U.S. crude’s per-barrel price surpassed $100 for the first time since May as fighting in the Middle East ratcheted up.

Analysts expect the U.S. will reach its $41.1 trillion debt ceiling sometime next year, at which point Congress will either need to raise it or suspend it before the Treasury Department runs out of measures to stop the U.S. from entering what would be a catastrophic default.

As CNBC’s Garrett Downs reports, the outcome of November’s election could shape the path to fixing the problem. If Democrats win one or both chambers of Congress, they could leverage averting the debt ceiling to score policy wins from President Donald Trump.

Plus, Trump’s recent promise for a $5,000 dividend for every American adult if Republicans keep control of the House and Senate in November could bring the U.S. to its limit even faster. Some Republicans said they would not lift the ceiling without significant cuts to government spending.

Inflation is once again increasing faster than wages are growing. As a result, many Americans have less purchasing power and are, as one economist put it, “worse off.”

Consumer prices climbed 3.4% in August from the same month a year prior, according to U.S. government data released Friday. Average hourly earnings rose 3.1% over the same time frame.

As CNBC’s Deena Zaidi reports, higher energy costs due to the war are partly to blame. A 3.9% jump in gasoline prices in August was responsible for more than a third of the consumer price index’s increase. On top of that, AI could also be putting pressure on paychecks.

Prediction markets are betting on another boom as football season and election season both kick into high gear.

Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are entering the fall bigger than ever before, with major events like a presidential election and sporting events driving adoption in recent years. Now, as the start of the NFL season and the ramp-up to the midterm elections coincide, prediction market companies are readying for what Robinhood’s JB Mackenzie called “a bit of a supercycle.”

As CNBC’s Davis Giangiulio writes, other events like this week’s Federal Reserve meeting and October’s MLB playoffs could also aid demand. The next few months could be make-or-break for smaller players in the space hoping to earn staying power.

• Tuesday: Federal Reserve policy meeting begins
• Wednesday: Lennar earnings (after the bell); Federal Reserve decision; retail sales data for August
• Thursday: Housing starts and pending home sales data for August

— CNBC’s Ashley Capoot, Kate Rooney, Garrett Downs, Arjun Kharpal, Sean Conlon, Elsa Ohlen, Justina Lee, Lee Ying Shan, Spencer Kimball, Deena Zaidi and Davis Giangiulio contributed to this report.

Josephine Rozzelle edited this edition.