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The average tax refund is 10.2% higher so far this season, compared to about the same period in 2025, according to the latest IRS filing data. The year-over-year percentage change is down from the 14.2% increase reported last week.
As of Feb. 20, the average refund amount for individual filers was $3,804, up from $3,453 about one year prior, the IRS reported on Friday.
The total amount refunded was about $109 billion, up 6.9% from 2025, according to the IRS release. But the total returns processed were down by 2.4%.
Amid consumer concerns about affordability, the Trump administration has emphasized how Trump’s “big beautiful bill” may impact the size of tax refunds this season.
In a late January release, the White House said average tax refunds could increase “by $1,000 or more,” citing several media reports that reference early October research from investment bank Piper Sandler.
A Feb. 26 report from Oxford Economics estimates that tax refunds will jump by nearly 20% this year, with more benefits flowing to middle- and upper-income households than usual, based on changes enacted via Trump’s 2025 tax cuts.
However, individual refunds could vary based on 2025 paycheck withholdings and which of Trump’s provisions impact their family’s situation, experts say.
