5 things to know before the market opens Wednesday

Happy Wednesday. And happy first day on the job to Josh D’Amaro, who today replaces Bob Iger as Disney’s CEO. CNBC’s Lillian Rizzo has more on what’s in store for the Mouse House’s new leader.

Stock futures are rising this morning. All three major indexes closed higher on Tuesday.

Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:

It’s Fed Day, but don’t get too excited. Traders are all but certain the Federal Reserve will stay on hold as it weighs inflation concerns, a murky labor market and the Iran war.

Here’s what to know:

• Fed funds futures are pricing in a near-zero chance that the Federal Open Market Committee cuts rates today, instead betting that the central bank’s key interest rate remains between 3.5% to 3.75%.
• Hopes for a cut at today’s meeting were slim even before the Iran war began. But the conflict’s fallout — namely surging oil prices and inflation fears — has pushed rate-cut projections back even further.
• Futures pricing now indicates that the central bank will wait until at least September to ease rates and will only issue one cut this year. Before the war, markets saw two cuts, with the first in June.
• All eyes will be on Chair Jerome Powell for insight into Fed officials’ thinking. Traders might be hesitant to give his comments too much credence, though, as Powell’s term as chair nears its end.
• Meanwhile, February’s producer price index is due out at 8:30 a.m. ET this morning.
• Follow live market updates here.

Shares of Macy’s are up 9% this morning after the retailer beat expectations for its fourth quarter. Despite the positive results, the company gave a cautious outlook for its fiscal year, forecasting lower sales and earnings per share than what it saw last year.

CEO Tony Spring touted Macy’s progress in an interview with CNBC, pointing to growth across all three of its brands. But uncertainty around gas prices and tariffs is clouding the future, he said. “We’re not economists. The team is really focused on controlling what they can control.”

Lululemon is also tamping down investor expectations for the year ahead. The athleisure retailer yesterday beat analyst expectations for the fourth quarter but issued weak guidance as a proxy battle and tariffs weigh on its earnings.

Oil prices resumed their climb yesterday, with Brent crude rising 3.2% to top $103 a barrel. The gains came as President Donald Trump said NATO allies would not get involved in the Iran war, what he called a “a very foolish mistake.”

The continued oil disruption pushed U.S. diesel prices above $5 for the first time since December 2022. Average diesel prices have surged 34% since the war began, while average gas prices have increased 27%, according to AAA.

Iranian attacks on U.S. assets in the Middle East and Israel intensified this morning, following the killing of Ali Larijani, Iran’s security chief, yesterday.

Micron is riding high ahead of its second-quarter earnings report this afternoon. Shares of the company are up more than 60% so far this year, making it the only one of the 10 most valuable American tech firms in the green for 2026.

As CNBC’s Jordan Novet reports, Micron’s surge is thanks to a memory shortage. Micron makes memory and storage for artificial intelligence systems, an area that’s seen tremendous demand from Nvidia’s memory-rich AI chips.

Analysts are expecting the company to report 148% year-over-year revenue growth after the bell.

Delta Air Lines, American Airlines and JetBlue Airways all raised their first-quarter revenue expectations yesterday, even as the airline industry faces higher fuel prices. Delta CEO Ed Bastian told CNBC that “really, really great” traveler demand is offsetting both fuel costs and the impact of recent winter storms.

Meanwhile, airports are continuing to see long security lines as an ongoing shutdown at the Department of Homeland Security forces Transportation Security Administration agents to work without pay — leading some to call out or quit. Senate Democrats, who are demanding changes to the agency’s immigration enforcement operations, sent a counteroffer to the White House yesterday.

Orlando Bravo has a message for the private market critics. The Thoma Bravo co-founder told CNBC’s Leslie Picker yesterday that experience is separating winners from losers, and that his firm’s clients are remaining confident in its track record.

— CNBC’s Lillian Rizzo, Jeff Cox, Pia Singh, Sean Conlon, Melissa Repko, Gabrielle Fonrouge, Lee Ying Shan, Spencer Kimball, Kevin Breuninger, Anniek Bao, Jordan Novet, Laya Neelakandan, Michele Luhn, Garrett Downs and Yun Li contributed to this report. Melodie Warner edited this edition.